Tại sao các nền kinh tế là trung tâm của dầu mỏ đang chao đảo trong giai đoạn hiện nay?

Câu trả lời đơn giản là giá dầu!
Giá dầu hiện nay quá thấp để các quốc gia thành viên OPEC có thể cân bằng được ngân sách chính phủ và cung cấp cho mạng lưới an sinh xã hội.
Ả Rập Xê-út vạch ra mức giá thấp trong thời gian dài hơn nhằm loại bỏ ngành công nghiệp đá phiến của Mỹ, ngành này chỉ sinh lời khi giá dầu trên $65/thùng. Họ chỉ đơn giản là sẽ không thể thu được đồng nào nếu giá hạ thấp hơn nữa.
OPEC hạ dự báo tăng trưởng nhu cầu về dầu thô
Hiện nay, mặc dù giá dầu vẫn ở mức thấp và hầu hết các tay chơi nhỏ hơn (yếu hơn) đã rớt đài, thì ngành công nghiệp dầu khí Mỹ vẫn tỏ ra vô cùng kiên cường. Sự liên doanh giữa các tay chơi lớn và nhỏ, cùng với sự giảm bớt sử dụng đòn bẩy tài chính trong các cán cân kế toán đã giúp các công ty này trở nên mạnh mẽ và linh hoạt hơn trong các kỳ tăng trưởng. 
Mặc dù nhiều công ty vẫn đang gặp khó khăn, nhưng phần lớn các nhà sản xuất đá phiến hiện tại đã ổn định. Tuy nhiên tình hình vẫn có thể thay đổi theo hướng tồi tệ hơn sớm thôi, nếu mức lãi xuất thấp nhất trong lịch sử cho phép họ tái huy động vốn và cứu lấy đống cổ phiếu “rác” của mình, trả lãi xuất thấp song đi cùng với đó là mức rủi ro cao. Nhưng bong bóng nợ doanh nghiệp vẫn chưa vỡ, vậy nên tình hình vẫn có thể nói là đang ổn định.
OPEC nâng dự báo về nhu cầu dầu mỏ của thế giới trong năm 2020
Ngoài ra, chiến lược của OPEC cũng được cho rằng có tác dụng chống lại những con gấu Nga yếu hơn vì đang bị áp các lệnh trừng phạt, nhưng như thường lệ, đó lại là một tính toán sai lầm. Đây là cách Ả Rập Xê-út bán đi “chiến lược” của mình như trước đây cho chính phủ Mỹ - gây tổn thất cho gấu Nga. Do đó, Nga chỉ đơn giản là đổi hướng sang Trung Quốc, và tăng cường xuất khẩu sang nước này, đồng thời xây dựng các đường ống và cơ sở hạ tầng để cải thiện quan hệ. Sau đó họ tiếp tục sang chơi cùng Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, Putin đã ký thỏa thuận với Erdogan về “south-stream”. Southstream đang được xây dựng khi tôi viết câu trả lời này, nó khiến mức độ phụ thuộc năng lượng của Châu Âu vào Nga trở nên cao hơn bao giờ hết. Và khiến các lệnh trừng phạt của Mỹ vào Nga trở nên vô dụng. Người châu Âu sẽ chết cóng nếu họ khiêu khích Nga. Nga đã cho Châu Âu thấy một ví dụ minh họa “ngọt ngào” khi dám láo nháo với họ. Gasprom đóng băng người Ukraine theo nghĩa đen.
Vậy là chiến lược của OPEC đã không mang lại hiệu quả. Mặc dù được thiết kế để loại bỏ sự cạnh tranh của cả Mỹ và Nga, nhưng kết quả cuối cùng lại là củng cố sức mạnh cho các đối thủ cạnh tranh và mở ra thị trường mới cho họ. Mặc dù được thiết kế để loại bỏ cả cạnh tranh của Mỹ và Nga, nhưng kết quả cuối cùng chỉ là củng cố các đối thủ cạnh tranh và mở ra thị trường mới cho họ. Vì vậy, giá dầu vẫn thấp hơn so với những gì mà các nước xuất khẩu mong muốn. Ngay cả sau cuộc tấn công Iran của Mỹ, dầu vẫn miễn cưỡng cho là tăng cao hơn nhiều so với mức hiện tại. Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ xâm chiếm Libya và giá dầu vẫn ổn định. Venezuela sụp đổ, cũng chẳng điều gì thay đổi.
Tính đến thời điểm này, tôi nghĩ rằng, dầu trên thế giới đã bị quét sạch. Chúng ta đang sản xuất quá mức và lượng tiêu thụ thì ít hơn nhiều! Tàu chở đầy dầu vẫn đang cắm sào ở vịnh Ba Tư, điều đó chứng tỏ hàng tồn kho còn khá lớn và những khách hàng Trung Quốc với cái bụng cồn cào vẫn chưa thể mua được nhiểu. Nền kinh tế Trung Quốc đã gặp khó khăn do suy thoái liên tục (sau giai đoạn tăng trưởng vượt bậc chưa từng có trong lịch sử), chiến tranh thuế quan và mức tăng cao nhất từ trước tới này của tỷ phần vốn vay (nợ). (leverage)
Cuối cùng nhưng không kém phần quan trọng, điều mà Ả Rập Xê-út không đoán được trước là sự tăng trưởng của công nghệ xanh và sự phát triển vượt bậc của công nghệ pin. Có một mối tương quan trực tiếp trong việc cải thiện gia tăng dung lượng pin và giảm mức sử dụng năng lượng hóa thạch. Họ có thể đổ lỗi hay nguyền rủa Elon Musk nếu điều đó làm họ bớt đau thương vì vụ này. Như một vị thần, người đàn ông này đã chứng minh điều không thể là có thể.
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